Kim Jong Un’s Talent for Public Diplomacy and its Threat to the World
By Oliver Gruenbacher
July 2, 2018
I had the rewarding opportunity to attend this year’s Milton Wolf Seminar on “Public Diplomacy in moments of Geopolitical Transformation” at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna. The theme of the seminar featured a broad variety of panelists and topics, among which I was exceptionally interested in Panel III “Sites of Contestation Part II: Geopolitical Hotspots” featuring Prof. Sung-Yoon Lee from Tufts University as one of the speakers. As I am currently in the process of doing research for my master thesis concerning the security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula, his presentation proved quite valuable for me personally. Professor Lee pointed out an interesting pattern he has observed in past rounds of negotiation with North Korean leaders, which he also shared in recent interviews he has given about the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Prof. Lee pointed out that there is a threat of misjudgment diplomats and politicians face when they encounter leaders like Kim Jong Un. This is due to the big contrast between anticipation and reality that they experience when they finally meet the respective dictator in person. Before the meeting, they are influenced by the image the international media conveys of them, which usually portrays them as rather irrational and mad. It is easy to get to this assumption when dealing with the Kim Regime in North Korea. Kim Jong Un and his two predecessors have always been reckless and brutal when it served their overruling principle of regime survival. This does not automatically mean, however, that their actions are irrational and that of a mad person. In fact, from the perspective of a dictator who puts his own survival far above that of his subordinates and values the wellbeing of his country’s citizens only little, Kim’s actions are all but irrational.
When Western politicians and diplomats finally meet dictators of this format in person, their sanity seemingly contradicts their reckless actions. Often this initial moment of confusion over the gap between anticipation and reality is followed by a feeling of deeper understanding about the opponent. This feeling of understanding can easily lead foreigners to the assumption that they are dealing with a sincere and transparent opponent, which can become a dangerous factor in the following negotiations. While the upcoming summit between Trump and Kim and the rounds of negotiations that probably follow it most certainly are more of publicity stunts than meetings for serious negotiations, the potential harm they could do is considerable. Trump and other US officials might exactly fall for the trap Prof. Lee described and treat Kim the same way as they treat credible heads of states.
As Kim Jong Un’s record of success since the beginning of this year shows, he is a master of applying this strategy when meeting foreign leaders. In addition, he is also successful in making his actions available to a worldwide audience and portraying himself in a favorable way. He displayed his skills during meetings with South Korea’s President Moon Jae In and with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier this year.
The famous inter-Korean summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in Panmunjom in April – among other meetings – apparently convinced South Korea’s President Moon Jae In to tie his political fate to the success of the negotiations. As could be observed ever since the rapprochement between the two Koreas started, his approval ratings rise and fall corresponding to the to state of the inter-Korean relations. His popularity among the South Korean population reached an all-time high after the summit in Panmunjom and peaked at 83%. So even if Moon avoids the outlined psychological trap in future meetings, Kim Jong Un has already won by convincing Moon to fully commit himself to the negotiations and act as an intermediary between him and Trump. The influence over Moon’s political fate gives Kim Jong Un considerable leverage in future negotiations and many further possibilities to portray himself as a legitimate leader, while it will be hard for Moon to pull himself out of the negotiations without damaging himself too much.
Regarding the US administration, Kim has apparently managed to convince Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of his credibility. Pompeo reportedly described Kim as “personable and well prepared” and found him in general far from the lunatic some would expect to find. Of course it has to be left to speculation to what extent Kim is able to use his charm on Pompeo – after all Pompeo is a former CIA Director and has to know how the Kims operate. But the success of Pompeo’s meetings with Kim Jong Un paved the way for the series of talks between Trump and Kim that will most likely follow and thus provides plenty of opportunity for Kim to use the same approach on Trump.
Indeed, it is hard to predict how exactly Trump will act during the coming talks. The run-up to the upcoming summit can certainly be described as eventful, reaching from commitments to sit down with Kim and talk to threatening him with “Fire and Fury”. Kim, in retrospective, seems to have responded in a language Trump understands, as the upcoming summit shows. What is worth even more for the North Korean leader, is that Trump seems to have made these negotiations a personal thing about him and Kim. It has yet to be observed, but Trump might be an easy target for Kim’s charm. A person who considers his own book “Trump: The Art of the Deal” as his second-favorite book after the bible is prone to certain patterns of thinking that play into Kim’s ambitions.
Consequently, US-North Korean talks about denuclearization might on the surface seem like a promising opportunity to finally end the decade-long security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula. At a second glance, the risks these talks entail seem much higher. Not only it will be a unique opportunity for Kim to portray himself as a legitimate leader equal to the President of the United States, but also he will have plenty of opportunity to make Trump fall into the same trap as many Western diplomats already did when dealing with the Kim regime.
Trump might approach the negotiations similar to how a real estate developer goes into negotiations over the price of the property. While purely relying on one’s instincts and experience with assessing one’s opponent’s personality can make good character traits for a businessman, it certainly is not the case for the President of the United States. It opens up possibilities for Kim to successfully apply his psychological tricks.
Consequently, it can be said that Kim currently has the momentum on his side. His southern counterpart is dependent on continuing the rapprochement with the North if he wants to keep his approval ratings high. Trump, on the other hand, seems to offer enough potential for Kim to exploit in upcoming talks between them. Therefore, closely observing how the situation continues to develop will certainly be highly interesting. The probability of failure for the talks has always been rather high, and even more so, when you take into account the effects personal encounters between Trump and Kim might have. As the Milton Wolf Seminar participants rightly acknowledged, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will be one of the hotspots of public diplomacy worldwide.
References
CNN, Maegan Vazquez. “Trump Says Pompeo Met with Kim Jong Un.” CNN. Accessed May 31, 2018.
CNN, Saba Hamedy and Joyce Tseng. “All the Times Trump Has Insulted North Korea.” CNN.
Diplomat, Hyewon Kim and Minhee Jo, The. “President Moon Jae-In’s Super Spring.” The Diplomat.
Ell, Kellie. “Trump-Kim Summit Is a Reality Show, Says Expert on the Koreas,” May 10, 2018.
McCarthy, Benjamin Haas Tom, Martin Pengelly. “Trump Confirms US Negotiators in North Korea for Summit Talks.” The Guardian, May 27, 2018, sec. World news.
Nikkei Asian Review. “Moon Hits 83% Approval on North-South Summit.” Nikkei Asian Review.
Sang-Hun, Choe. “North and South Korea Set Bold Goals: A Final Peace and No Nuclear Arms.” The New York Times, May 31, 2018, sec. World