Unpacking Polarization

For nearly two years, the Polarization Research Lab has tracked political polarization in the U.S. by conducting weekly public opinion polls. Its co-director, Yphtach Lelkes, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication, explained some of the lab’s recent findings, revealing that there is substantial opinion diversity within each party. The Polarization Research Lab is a collaboration between faculty and researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, Dartmouth College, and Stanford University.

A popular narrative in U.S. political reporting is that Democrats and Republicans do not agree on anything. Have you found that to be true in your research?

Lelkes: Democrats and Republicans actually agree on quite a bit. While the average Democrat and Republican may differ on many issues, there is substantial opinion diversity within each party. Even when party averages show disagreement, many individuals within both parties share common ground. For example, Republicans are not particularly unified on issues like gun control and abortion.

Additionally, both sides hold similarly distorted perceptions of each other. Despite very few people actually supporting partisan violence or anti-democratic policies, each side is equally wrong about the beliefs of the other.

There is also policy agreement across party lines. For instance, both Democrats and Republicans share concerns about the threats posed by artificial intelligence to law enforcement and electoral integrity. Both are similarly skeptical of corporations' involvement in politics, believing it is driven more by marketing than ideology. Moreover, a majority of Americans, regardless of party affiliation, support implementing term limits for the Supreme Court.

In the lead-up to the presidential election, your lab has collected Americans’ opinions on contentious issues, from immigration to banning books. What are some of the things you have found, and how do they speak to the current political divide?

Lelkes: Democrats and Republicans are deeply polarized on cultural issues—those that touch on aspects of identity such as religion, race, gender, and perceived threats to American culture. Particularly divisive are issues seen as threatening children’s moral development. For example, about 60 percent of Republicans support removing books from public schools if parents find them inappropriate, while roughly 60 percent of Democrats oppose this. Similarly, 55 percent of Republicans back stripping tenure from professors who teach critical race theory, while most Democrats oppose this. 

Democrats and Republicans are also divided on immigration but for reasons linked to both culture and economics. Sixty-four percent of Democrats believe that immigrants make the economy better, while 65 percent of Republicans believe it makes it worse. Sixty-one percent of Democrats believe that immigration makes American culture better, while 60 percent of Republicans believe that it makes it worse.

Although these divisions are stark, they may reflect political efforts to manufacture conflict and signal identities rather than deep societal divides. For instance, while many Republicans oppose critical race theory, the majority cannot clearly define it. 

In a time of such extreme political polarization, it could be easy to assume that every Democrat or Republican shares the same view on issues like access to abortion or gun control. Do Americans underestimate the variety of opinions held by their fellow voters? What does this mean for democracy?

Lelkes: Politics is fundamentally about building coalitions to support various issues. When parties are seen as "big tents" encompassing a range of opinions, individuals from different parties can collaborate on shared goals. Compromise becomes possible—we both back this policy, so let's work together to make a deal. However, when the other side is perceived as not only extreme but uniformly so, compromise becomes impossible.

In reality, there is significant variation within each party. Some Democrats are more conservative, while some Republicans are more pro-choice, even as others are staunchly pro-life. But when Democrats view all Republicans as uniformly pro-life, they see the party as a monolithic threat, which drives them to block Republicans from gaining power. Ironically, this can lead to support for anti-democratic policies and politicians, as people believe they are protecting democracy by preventing their opponents from taking power.

While misperceptions of partisan extremity are well-known, my recent paper with [Annenberg doctoral student] Nic Dias and Jake Pearl shows that people also severely underestimate the diversity of opinions within the opposing party. In fact, misperceptions of diversity are more extreme than misperceptions of extremity, 

We conducted surveys and experiments involving over 9,000 participants to explore how well Americans understand the range of policy attitudes within each party. Our findings show that partisans on both sides tend to see the other party has more unified and extreme than it actually is.

Nic has new work showing that a similar bias appears among politicians as well. In addition to documenting these misperceptions and their correlates, the study opens the door to new interventions that might help reduce polarization and its harmful effects on democracy. 

A recent report from your lab found that the percentage of Americans who agreed with the statement that America is heading toward the end of democracy has substantially dropped over the past two years — from 58 percent in 2022 to 44 percent in 2024. What does this change mean?

Lelkes: Two data points don’t necessarily indicate a trend, but it seems we are emerging from a bleak period in American history. In 2022, Americans were still grappling with the aftermath of January 6 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, while many Americans remain deeply pessimistic about the future of democracy, there are signs of hope: 60 percent disagree with the statement that “very little can be done to stop democracy from ending in the next decade.” This gives me hope. Pessimism can be mobilizing and lead to change, while resignation breeds complacency, allowing aspiring authoritarians to push undemocratic policies or encouraging people to seek undemocratic solutions.

However, partisan differences remain concerning. Optimism among Democrats has increased by roughly 15 percentage points, while it has dropped by about 10 points among Republicans. Although resignation has significantly decreased among Republicans, the perception that the system is broken and that drastic actions are necessary remains dangerous. These sentiments contributed to the motivations behind January 6, and it is crucial for political elites to counter such beliefs.

Notably, we asked this question shortly after Joe Biden withdrew from the race, which may have energized Democrats.